Polling trend has McCainiacs smiling
A week ago, state-by-state polling was rather dismal for John McCain and the GOP. As we pointed out here, some pundits were whispering about a blowout victory by Barack Obama. Real Clear Politics poll averages found Obama’s lead swelled to 8 points in Pennsylvania and Michigan, and equally disturbing news elsewhere. What a change a few days can bring about.
Despite Obama’s overseas jaunt and the accompanying media blitz (the effects of which will not be reflected in the polls for several days yet), the trend has reversed itself. To be sure, the potential for a blowout victory is still there. But conservatives are smiling about the latest poll releases . . . and emboldened.
“McCain should win big on November 4th,” predicts perception50 in comment at Politico.
“Wow, what a great day for J-Mac. These polls . . . are simply amazing news,” crows Joshua Lawson in Race 4 ‘08 comments. Fellow Race 4 ‘08 reader Brett Passmore is a little bolder: “The Obam-a-bust is coming.”
The news they’re responding to are the latest Quinnipiac-Washington Post-Wall Street Journal polls of select battleground states, released today.
In Colorado, the poll finds McCain up 2 points (46%-44%). That’s a 7-point swing from a month ago, when Obama was up 5. In Michigan, McCain closes the gap from 6 points to 4 (46%-42%), and in Minnesota, the gap is significantly closer, from 17 points in June to just 2 points now (46%-44%).
These polls come on the heels of a jaw-dropping Rasmussen poll in Ohio, which found McCain ahead of Obama by 10 points (52%-42%) in polling that ended Monday. Rasmussen has been more favorable towards McCain in Ohio than other polls, but the most recent Rasmussen release (June 17) had found McCain up just 1%.
The news isn’t all good, of course. The latest Rasmussen poll in Colorado, released Monday, has McCain trailing by 3 points (the June Rasmussen poll in Colorado had Obama up 2 points). And, the latest Rasmussen poll in Florida, a do-or-die state for McCain, finds Obama ahead by 2 points (49%-47%), a 10-point swing from last month. In fact, while the RCP poll average in Florida shows the state tied, its chart is swayed by a GOP-financed Strategic Vision poll, which found McCain ahead by 8 points and appears to be the outlier among Sunshine State polls.
And if McCainiacs are smiling about polls, they’re probably also smiling about — get this — an editorial from the mainstream media criticizing Obama. The USA Today asks this morning, “Why can’t Obama admit the obvious? The surge [in Iraq] worked.”
VEEPSTAKES NOTE: Despite Pawlenty being the flavor of the day in the veep guessing game (don’t worry; tomorrow it’ll be someone new), Michigan Democrats have apparently bought into the speculation that McCain has settled on Mitt Romney, unleashing an attack ad on Romney.
July 25th, 2008 at 12:30 am
[...] Charles J. Brown wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptA week ago, state-by-state polling was rather dismal for John McCain and the GOP. As we pointed out here, some pundits were whispering about a blowout victory by Barack Obama. Real Clear Politics poll averages found Obama’s lead swelled … Read the rest of this great post here [...]