All signs now point to Romney
Kavon Nikrad blogged yesterday that several sources were reporting that Mitt Romney would be John McCain’s veep selection.
Marc Ambinder seems sold on the probability, opining that McCain will not announce his veep selection this week because . . . Mitt Romney is out of the country.
But as quickly as rumors began flaring in GOP circles this week that Romney was to be unveiled as the long-awaited selection this week, anti-speculation began. The old man from Arizona is a bit more saavy than his critics give him credit for, the anti-speculators said; his campaign is releasing juicy tidbits of nothingness to the press in order to take some of the attention off the lust of the Obama global jaunt.
Politico’s Mike Allen, typically reliable, quoted campaign insiders earlier this month as saying that McCain planned to hold off on an announcement until after Obama had released the name of his running-mate. If that’s true — and Ambinder is right — the buzz about the incoincidental press nuggets could be correct.
But even if it is, Romney remains the odds-on favorite to be McCain’s running mate . . . to the delight or chagrin of conservatives, depending on who they are. Social conservatives tend to despise Romney’s past stances on abortion and gay marriage, while fiscal conservatives like his strong business track record. Fear of Romney’s Mormon affiliation seems to transcend sectors of conservatism. And it all adds up to an oft-asked question throughout the blogosphere: Would Romney on the ticket be an aid or hindrance to the McCain campaign?
There’s no doubt that Romney has his baggage, and the LDS religious ties are just the start. The media would have his track record for dinner; his long-term flip-flops make Obama’s pale in comparison. But, there isn’t a VP candidate (besides, perhaps, Sarah Palin) who doesn’t come with baggage. And Romney also brings positives for the table. For one, McCain insiders estimate that Romney would be a fundraising boost, perhaps able to raise as much as $50 million in 60 days (although the skeptics will point out that, if he has such fundraising prowess, why was he forced to use so much of his own cash during the primary campaign?). And, that LDS negative actually becomes a positive in the West, where Obama is hoping to carve serious inroads this election cycle. States like Nevada and Colorado could hinge on the 50,000 or so potential Mormon votes available in each state.
As for the concern that Romney on the ticket would endanger the usually-reliable vote of the evangelicals, there is recent polling data to suggest that McCain is already suffering in this regard. Pew Forum data suggests that McCain has the support of just 61% of white evangelicals as of June, compared to the 69% that Bush had in June 2004. That’s obviously a huge chunk of the bloc, and one that could help tilt the race in Obama’s favor. But then there’s the flip-side of that data: Obama has in his hip pocket the support of just 25% of white evangelicals. At the same time in ‘04, Kerry had the support of 26% of that voting bloc.
So it isn’t as if the evangelicals are rushing to support Obama. No, they’re still fuming that the GOP didn’t nominate someone more accepting of their agenda. But, they’ll likely come around. Focus on the Family’s Dr. James Dobson had said that he could not vote for McCain in good conscience; now he hints at a forthcoming endorsement of McCain. Like Dobson, evangelicals will come around for McCain . . . and they’ll probably come around whether or not Romney is on the ballot.
Besides, evangelical votes are most important in states like Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky . . . the Southeast. Most of those states aren’t going to be in jeopardy regardless of who is on the ticket. An exception might be Georgia, but it’s a long shot. Missouri and Virginia are likely to be close enough that a handful of evangelicals voting one way or the other could tip those races, but that’s nothing but pure speculation at this point. And, not to be forgotten is the fact that Romney, his family ties there withstanding, delivered an economics message to Michigan voters during the campaign that resonated. And if Romney could tip Michigan in McCain’s favor, that alone might be reason enough to put him on the ballot.