Do signs point to an Obama blowout?
Some pundits — primarily left-minded ones — believe the 2008 presidential election will be a blow-out, with Barack Obama handedly defeating John McCain. Reporters say “nonsense . . . look at the national polls.” And the national polls, of course, have the 2 candidates neck-and-neck; Saturday’s daily tracking poll from Rasmussen showed McCain and Obama deadlocked at 46% with leaners considered.
Yet, the state-by-state polls undeniably show an unfavorable trend for McCain, and that’s where it matters. National figures are almost always close, even when electoral figures aren’t. In 1984, Ronald Reagan defeated Walter Mondale in every U.S. state, with the exception of Minnesota. The popular vote total was lopsided, but not as much as winning 49 of 50 states might seem to indicate, as Reagan captured 58% of the vote. A better example is 1996, when Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole. Clinton captured 379 electoral votes to Dole’s 159, but only 49% of the popular vote (to Dole’s 40%).
But back to those state-by-state polls: Granted, polling averages from Real Clear Politics shows most states still very much up in the air; only 12 states’ averages find either candidate ahead by double digits. Those are California, Connecticut, Minnesota, New York and Wisconsin for Obama, and Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Texas for McCain.
However, if the election were held today and state-by-state polls were accurate, the election would fairly easily slide Obama’s way. The best way to analyze the 2008 election is to use the 2000 election as a starting point. The electorate hasn’t changed significantly since 2000, and it was one of the closest elections in history; had Gore won just about anywhere he lost, the final outcome would’ve been reversed.
For the most part, poll averages currently find McCain ahead in states Bush won in 2000, and Obama ahead in states Gore won in 2000. But there are several exceptions. The most important of the exceptions is Ohio, where Bush twice won, but Obama leads by 5 percentage points. The poll averages find that recent Democratic inroads in the West are being exploited by Obama, and that also spells trouble for McCain. The number of states relied upon by Democrats recently may have been relatively few in number, but they packed an electoral wallop. Thus, unless the Republicans can change outcomes on the West Coast and in the Northeast — and that ain’t happening, obviously — they sorely need the West, along with the Southeast and at least a couple of the key Midwestern swing states.
McCain’s hold in the traditional GOP zones will be solid enough that he could worry less about the West if he could save face in Ohio and pull off an upset in either Michigan or Pennsylvania, but that appears relatively unlikely at this point. Obama has stretched his lead to 8% in both states, according to poll averages.
In addition to Ohio, Obama holds a lead (albeit razor-thin) in the key Midwestern swing state of Indiana, as well as New Hampshire, which Bush won in 2000 (but which Kerry won in 2004). Obama also holds a slim lead in Virginia. And then the West: Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico could all go to Obama, if poll averages are correct. Of that trio, only New Mexico went Gore’s way in 2000. In addition, McCain’s lead in Montana is too close for comfort.
On top of that, McCain’s lead in North Carolina leaves that state (which Bush won by double-digits) too close to call, and Missouri is also too close to call. McCain’s once comfortable lead in Florida has shrunk to just over 2%, and it goes without saying that while McCain might, with a little luck, win the presidency without Ohio, he has no chance if both Ohio and Florida swing the other way.
RCP’s prediction, with all the toss-up states divided according to these early polls, is that Obama would win with 322 electoral votes to McCain’s 216. Not a huge blow-out, but lopsided nonetheless. And, that doesn’t take into account the 27 electoral votes that McCain could lose in Florida if trends continue in Obama’s favor, or the 11 in Missouri or the 15 in North Carolina. If those states, where Obama has closed earlier gaps, swung in Obama’s favor, the tally would be 385 to 163 . . . a bonafide blowout in just about anyone’s book.
On the other hand, the polls in most Bush states that are counted in the Obama column are close. In many of them, the averages are within the margin of error. And this comes despite the media blitz that Obama has enjoyed and a McCain campaign that many observers have complained is too stagnant and unexciting. If McCain can survive the bounces that will likely follow Obama’s overseas trip this week and the Democratic convention next month, what could be a blowout is still very much a possible McCain victory. In fact, the race could be close enough that the “hundreds of thousands or millions of votes” some of Hillary Clinton’s top supporters have pledged to send McCain’s way if he can convince them he’s worth their vote could make or break the race.