The battle for 60
A Barack Obama win in November would put Democrats in hog heaven. Gaining enough Senate seats to control the chamber would be purely paradise.
The 60-seat majority is, as the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza puts it, the “holy grail” of the Senate. Obtain it, and the opposing party is virtually powerless. Filibusters are useless. There’s nothing to stand in the way of the controlling party’s agenda. For all their successes, George W. Bush didn’t have such a luxury, nor did Bill Clinton. For that matter, neither did George H.W. Bush or Ronald Reagan. To find the last 60-seat majority, one has to go back 3 decades to the Jimmy Carter era, when Democrats held 61 seats for 2 years.
But the pendulum of American political opinion has swung back left over the past 2 years, and that has Democrats talking control of the Senate. Their 6-seat pickup in the ‘06 midterms gave the Democrats the simple majority, with 51 (actually, it’s a 49-49 tie, but independents Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman caucus with the Democrats). Now, the Dems have their sights set on loftier goals.
A 60-seat majority isn’t likely. But it isn’t outside the realm of possibility, either. This much seems certain: The Republicans aren’t going to regain control of the Senate this year. They need only 2 seats to do so, but it isn’t likely to happen. For starters, the raw numbers are tilted severely against them. The GOP has 23 incumbents up for re-election, and 5 are retiring. The Democrats have only 12 up for re-election, and none are retiring. Throw in the Democrat-tilted public sentiment, and it seems likely that the Republicans will not only remain in the minority, but that they will lose ground.
But can the Democrats get to 60? Probably not. National Public Radio predicts at least 4 pickups for the blue team, which is about as middle of the road as predictions get; some pundits are more bullish about the Democrats chances; some, not so much so.
The only Democrat incumbent likely to be in danger of losing this November is Louisiana’s Mary Landrieu. Louisiana is traditionally a reliable blue state, but has been shifting right. In 2004, David Vitter became the first Republican since Reconstruction to be sent to the Senate by Louisiana voters. And, last year, Louisiana voted Republican in its gubernatorial race. Landrieu won by a razor-thin margin in 2002, and faces opposition this fall from state treasurer John N. Kennedy, himself a former Democrat who switched parties last spring. The latest Rasmussen poll finds Landrieu ahead, but only by a 6-pt. margin, close enough to leave the seat in play.
Aside from that, Democrats should be safe. In fact, the only Democrat who could conceiveably struggle are New Jersey’s Frank Lautenberg. The aging Lautenberg (84) has the lowest approval rating (39%) of any Democratic incumbent facing re-election. He waltzed through primary competition, leading pundits to declare him safe, but a Rasmussen poll last month found him only 1 point ahead of Republican challenger Dick Zimmer. Many pundits felt South Dakota’s Tim Johnson might be a target this fall after surviving a 2002 challenge from John Thune by the slimmest of margins (500 votes). But, Johnson’s approval rating is quite good (70%), and he’s well ahead of challenger Joel Dykstra in the polls.
The picture isn’t as rosy for Republicans. Thad Cochran is probably safe in Mississippi, Lindsey Graham is almost certainly safe in South Carolina, and Michael Enzi and John Barrasso are probably safe in Wyoming. Jeff Sessions (Alabama), Saxy Chambliss (Georgia), Jim Inhofe (Oklahoma) and Lamar Alexander (Tennessee) are presumeably safe.
But after that, it’s anybody’s guess as to how many states the Republicans can save. Some, like North Carolina’s Elizabeth Dole and Kentucky’s Mitch McConnell, are breathing fairly easy at this point in the campaign. Others, such as John Sununu from New Hampshire, are not. Sununu is the most likely Republican incumbent to fall. He faces opposition from former governor Jeanne Shaheen, who has been consistently leading in polls. It seems likely at this point that Sununu will be defeated and the GOP will lose his seat to the Democrats.
Republicans are also likely to lose seats in New Mexico and Virginia, where Republican incumbents Pete Domenici and John Warner are retiring. The Republicans have virtually conceded the New Mexico race already, to Democrat Tom Udall. In Virginia, former governor Mark Warner (D) is soundly whipping former governor Jim Gilmore, polls show.
That brings the likely Democratic pickups to 3, which would give them 54 seats in the Senate. It’s a pretty safe bet that this will happen. From here, the attention will turn to a couple more seats where incumbents are retiring: Colorado and Mississippi. In Colorado, Wayne Allard retired and will watch as fellow Republican Bob Schaffer is the likely candidate to seek his seat. Congressman Mark Udall will be the Democratic nominee. In a normal year, the battle would likely be a toss-up. But given the sentiment, it’s likely a slight leaner for Democrats this fall.
A similar situation is developing in Mississippi. This is actually an incumbent state, but Roger Wicker was appointed to the seat by Gov. Haley Barbour last December, and will face strong opposition this fall from Democratic former governor Ronnie Musgrove.
Those 2 seats are not as likely for the Democrats, but it seems reasonable that they may split the 2, putting total gains at 4, and a Senate majority of 55 seats.
After that, the Democrats would need some luck to pick up 5 more seats. They would need to capture some states they aren’t expected to capture, but that they have an outside shot of winning. The most likely among such states is Alaska, where incumbent Republican Ted Stevens is aging (85) and the target of an FBI probe into allegations of misconduct. Alaska is among the union’s most conservative states, but a formidible opponent has qualified on the left side. Mark Begich, mayor of Anchorage and son of popular Alaskan politician Nick Begich, will challenge. The possibility remains, however slim, that Stevens won’t survive the primary.
In Minnesota, freshman Senator Norm Coleman faces opposition from comedian Al Franken in the most talked-about race of the season. Coleman narrowly won in 2002 after Paul Wellstone died in a plane crash, defeating Carter VP Walter Mondale. Franken led in some polls early, but has suffered setbacks of late, mostly related to his ability to insert his foot into his mouth, and Coleman has surged back in front.
Another state where Democrats could potentially pull off a minor upset is Oregon, where junior Senator Gordon Smith is facing a challenge from Gordon Leitch.
The problem for Democrats is that even if they get lucky and win those 3, they would still be 2 short of the number needed, and it’s not too likely that their luck could continue to take them much further, unless something changes in the next 3.5 months. On the other hand, even the best-case scenario for Republicans this fall would likely leave the Democrats within striking distance of the 60-seat majority for 2010. On the other hand, if Democrats win the White House in November and don’t bring about change on the economic and foreign policy fronts, it’s possible that the pendulum will be swinging back to the right by the ‘10 midterms.