Barack Obama: A fund-raising problem?!
After the millions of dollars raised by Barack Obama, Superstar during the primary season, who would’ve thought that we’d be sitting here in early July discussing a lackluster fundraising campaign by the Democratic nominee-presumptive.
Yet, that’s exactly where we are. Kavon Nikrad at Race 4 2008 points out that there is a distinct possibility that Obama raised less money in June than he did in May . . . when eyebrows were raised throughout after Obama reported fundraising of around $22 million, which was just $1 million higher than John McCain.
Are we really only 2 weeks removed from Obama’s decision to opt out of public financing for post-convention campaign spending, which led pundits across the political spectrum — not to mention the mainstream media — to opine that Obama would put McCain at an astronomical cash disadvantage? Fast-forward to now, and the question is becoming whether McCain might actually be at a cash advantage. Granted, Nikrad’s speculation doesn’t appear to be based on anything concrete, and he is the only one delving into such speculation so far, but I there’s no reason to think his reasoning is too far-fetched.
Also, consider this: When the cash of each party’s national committee is paired with the candidate of choice, McCain does have a decided advantage. The RNC outgained the DNC by $80 million in the 2004 presidential election cycle, and was expected to hold an advantage over its DNC counterpart this election cycle despite the enthusiasm shown by the Democratic Party’s liberal base. In May, the RNC + McCain outgained the DNC + Obama $45.9 million to $28.1 million.
What’s the problem? Perhaps there is none. This is the lull in the election season. The primary season ended weeks ago and the conventions are still weeks away. Obama may regain his fundraising advantage by the time he surrounds Denver’s Invesco Field with 75,000 adoring fans to accept the Democratic nomination next month.
Or, perhaps there is. Needless to say, Obama’s shift to the middle in an effort to gain the support of independents and disgruntled Republican-leaning voters has infuriated his liberal base, which was responsible for much of his Internet fundraising advantage over Hillary Clinton in the primary season. Consider this passage:
FISA, gun control, public finance, the death penalty, religious-based initiatives, late-term abortions, Iraq, turning his back on groups such as MoveOn, and throwing people like Wes Clark under the bus. They all add up to Obama’s progressive base wondering with justifiable uncertainty: Who is this guy and what the hell is he doing?
And it comes, from all places, the Huffington Post! Granted, the author — Kristen Breitweiser — is a self-proclaimed Clinton-supporter-to-the-end, but if the Huffington Post isn’t united behind Obama by July (and, more importantly, more than a month after Clinton dropped out of the race), that’s telling.
Granted, liberals will stand with Obama in the end, just as disgruntled conservatives will stand with McCain in the end. Breitweiser, after ripping Obama the proverbial new one, writes, “Obama knows that he has all of your votes in his back pocket.” Still, as the liberal base cools to Obama’s approach, he’s inevitably going to have a more difficult time picking up the $25 donations from his online supporters.
Make no mistake. There was 1 issue that catapulted Obama to the nomination: The Iraq war. It made no difference that both he and Clinton were beating the leave-Iraq-now drum in January and February. Obama had opposed the war from the start (harshly criticizing the Iraq war and President Bush in his keynote at the 2004 Democratic Convention, which kickstarted his rise to fame), while Clinton was for it before she was against it.
Suddenly, Obama has changed his stance on Iraq. As Chris pointed out earlier, his new policy is an about-face. It’s not only a reminder that his foreign policy is reckless and all too apparently borne of inexperience, but it’s infuriating to the liberal base who saw the war as separation between Obama and Clinton (See also: Politico’s Roger Simon’s take on Obama and Iraq). Time’s David Von Drehle points out today that, “plenty of Clinton backers are not yet happy campers. They want to nominate their candidate as the world watches and cast 1,600 votes, as a powerful reminder that Obama’s victory was floss-thin.”
Suddenly, it’s a quandry for Obama unlike he could have possibly anticipated. He shifted on the Iraq war in an attempt to gain moderate votes, and the media called him on it. He held a hastily-called news conference to try and explain his position (and blame the media for its interpretation of his Iraq comments), but essentially said the same thing. That, and his similar shift on FISA, has supporters using My.BarackObama.Com to essentially organize against him. Breitweiser encourages her readers to stop sending Obama their money, saying that will get his attention and force him to, I suppose, revert back to his more liberal self. But, as others have already pointed out, yet another shift now would amount to political suicide. He would win over the liberal base again, but he would risk completely alienating the independent base, which would cost him the election.
Obama must feel darned-if-he-does, darned-if-he-doesn’t. But there’s more good news for McCain. Traffic on Obama’s website is at its lowest point it has been this year (though it is worth pointing out again that we are in the campaign lull . . . McCain’s website traffic is down as well and is still dwarfed by Obama’s traffic, but McCain’s homepage hasn’t seen the percentage drop that Obama’s has suffered). And, today’s Gallup presidential tracking poll finds McCain within 2 points of Obama (46% to 44%). The rolling 3-day average was last within 2 points June 31, and was deadlocked June 24-26, but McCain was down by 6 points — his largest deficit in the poll since May — as recently as this past weekend. Obama’s support has fallen from 48% to 46% while McCain’s has risen from 42% to 44%, perhaps hinting at a miniature surge in wake of Obama’s startling shift on Iraq.
All-in-all, McCain must be breathing a big easier now that Obama no longer seems completely unstoppable. And, what will the MSM make of it if, heaven forbid, the numbers wind up showing McCain with a fundraising advantage over Obama in June?