Electorally speaking
For all the campaigning, stumping and mud-slinging that goes into the presidential elections, races for the White House in the modern era of American politics tend to come down to a few key states: The swing states in the nation’s midsection (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan), the electoral prize to which those Midwesterners retire (Florida), and few others. The West Coast and New England are going to be blue, the South and the West are going to be red.
The 2008 presidential election isn’t much different, at least at first glance. He who takes the swing states (the Midwest + Florida) is figured to be the winner. George W. Bush did it twice by taking just one of the Midwest states (Ohio) and by adding Florida to his electoral coffers.
But Bush did it narrowly, and without his Democratic opponents repainting a significant number of red states blue. By contrast, Barack Obama is aggressively persuing voters in several key states that typically vote Republican, and that could play a huge role in the campaign. In other words, maintaining the Bush electoral status quo might not quite cut it for John McCain.
Consider 2000, when Al Gore came up just short of the presidency. He did it without Ohio and Florida, and by converting just 2 red states: New Mexico and Iowa. A win in West Virginia, which he narrowly lost, would have been enough to secure the presidency for Gore. Obama leads in both New Mexico and Iowa, and is deadlocked with McCain in Nevada. A couple of other states that Bush relied on — Indiana and Virginia — in both 2000 and 2004 could also go blue this fall. So even if McCain were to win Ohio (where he currently trails) and Florida (where his lead is shrinking), that might not be enough if he cannot conserve the electoral base built by Bush.
On the other hand, 2 swing states that typically go Democrat are hanging in the balance. Obama’s lead in Pennsylvania — where he lost overwhelmingly to Hillary Clinton in the primary — is not significant, and the poll average in Michigan is well within the margin of error. No Republican has won either of those states since George H.W. Bush in 1988. Suffice it to say that if McCain could capture just 1 of those 2 states, and hold on to Ohio, he could afford any inroads Obama blazes into the West, where electoral votes are typically measured in the single digits (the exception is Arizona’s 10 electoral votes, and if McCain pulls an Al Gore and loses his home state, he has much bigger problems to worry about anyway).
Some of those red states in the east that Obama has his eyes on wouldn’t be so easy to overcome. Indiana boasts 11 electoral votes, as does Missouri. By winning both of those states, Obama could overcome a loss in either Michigan or Pennsylvania. Add in a Virginia (13) or a North Carolina (15), and McCain would have to win both Michigan and Pennsylvania to hold ground . . . throw in a couple of those smaller states, and Obama might find the road to the White House paved without the stepping stones of Michigan, Ohio or Pennsylvania. It would’ve been almost inconceiveable in 2000 or 2004 that Bush could win the presidency without any of those states, but it goes to show just how much this race hangs in the balance. It is a race that hasn’t been defined by any precedent so far, so why should we expect the electoral count to be any more mundane than this highly unusual race as a whole?
In the end, though, one has to think that much of the status quo will be maintained. Obama might win a targeted red state here or there — perhaps New Mexico, perhaps Virginia — but pulling off wholesale victories in those states is very unlikely. We won’t know, of course, until after the parties hold their respective conventions later this month and next, and folks who haven’t paid any attention to the race thus far start to do so. But it seems likely that the race will once again come back down to those key states in the nation’s Rust Belt.
Then there’s the issue of running mates to consider. Historically, running mates don’t make a substantial difference in the outcomes of these campaigns. But this election could be historically close, not only on a national scale, as was the Bush-Gore finale in 2000, but on a state-by-state scale as well. For instance, Mitt Romney’s family ties in Michigan and his Mormon ties in the West might be enough to swing a couple of states McCain’s way that would otherwise go to Obama.