D.C. v. Heller and its impact on the election
The Supreme Court of the United States yesterday upheld a lower court’s ruling that strikes down the District of Columbia’s ban on handguns as being unconstitutional, and for the first time, affirmed that individuals have a constitutional right to bear arms.
The 5-4 decision was a landmark ruling and a major victory for gunowners. Now the attention turns immediately to the November elections, as both major candidates weighed in on the court’s ruling shortly after it was handed down yesterday. The question: Who benefits more from that ruling?
Gunowners are feeling emboldened by the court victory. The NRA — the nation’s most powerful gun lobby — immediately said that it would file lawsuits across the country where tough gun laws exist, in order to challenge the constitutional standing of those laws after the favorable precedent delivered by the high court.
And, the old broad brushstrokes paint true: Gun rights supporters typically vote Republican while gun control advocates typically vote Democrat.
John McCain — who has been at odds with the NRA in the past but hired a former operative of the gun lobby to help mold his campaign — seized on the court’s ruling to call attention to Barack Obama’s gun control initiatives. Obama, who recognized the tradition of gun ownership in America in a statement following the court’s ruling, supports the gun bans of D.C. and his home city of Chicago. RNC spokesman Danny Diaz yesterday called Obama the “most anti-gun candidate” in presidential history.
But will the Republicans benefit from the ruling at the polls? The GOP has benefited greatly from gun owners in the past; gun owners and sportsmen played huge roles in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, turning out in record numbers. And when they did, they voted overwhelmingly — better than 2-to-1 — for Republican candidate George W. Bush.
But gunowners seem to tend to vote when they’re angry. In the 1994 congressional midterms, Republicans stole the show in the wake of some of the most damaging anti-gun legislation in history, including the Brady Bill and the Assault Weapons Ban. The tide that the GOP rode to midterm victory in ‘94 was fueled in large part by angry gunowners. And, behind groups such as the NRA and Gunowners of America, the groundswell of support for the gun lobby continued through 2004, before appearing to ebb in the absence of gun legislation. With Republicans controlling all branches of government, gun control was not an issue after the 2002 midterms — another election that saw increased gunowner turnout — and the AWB was allowed to sunset in 2004. That seemed to create a sense of complacency, and exit polls in the 2006 midterms — a sweeping victory for Democrats — showed gunowner turnout down substantially from 2004.
In other words: When the tables aren’t turned against them, gunowners appear to grow complacent. When they’re angry, they vote overwhelmingly. When they’re complacent, the exit polls reflect the attitude.
If anything, D.C. v. Heller will cause gunowners to relax and grow complacent, even though the anti-gun lobby isn’t likely to wave the white flag. While the NRA is working with the momentum at their back in the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s ruling, the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence and Women Against Gun Violence both vowed to step up efforts to fight gun control.
Meanwhile, gun control zealots are likely to be the angry ones at the polls this November. They view the nation’s gun control efforts as having been dealt a serious blow over the past 4 years, beginning with the sunset of the AWB and culminating with yesterday’s lobby. Their votes could benefit the Democrats if their numbers are strong enough at the polls this fall.
The potential wild card is the vows by gun control advocacy groups, such as the Brady campaign and the Legal Community Against Violence, to step up their fight. If their fight for stricter gun legislation were to move into the spotlight on the political scene between now and November, it might encourage more gunowners to “get out the vote.” However, it isn’t likely that members of Congress favoring gun control will make it an issue before the November election.