More good news for McCain on drilling
I commented last week that, despite his criticism for failing to support opening the ANWR to exploration, energy might well turn out to be John McCain’s defining difference in the race against Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama.
I pointed out that a recent Gallup poll found 57% of Americas in favor of offshore oil exploration, and a Rasmussen poll was even more favorable, finding 67% favoring offshore drilling and only 18% opposing it. Florida governor Charlie Crist, a long-time opponent of offshore drilling, has changed his tune, and a recent SurveyUSA poll found a majority of citizens in California, of all places, now in favor of offshore drilling.
Comes now a Zogby poll on the subject, and it’s the most favorable tally of American opinion so far. The poll, released Friday, finds 74% of Americans in favor of offshore exploration, including 90% of likely Republican voters and 58% of likely Democratic voters. Most importantly, 75% of independent voters favor offshore drilling. And, 25% said they would be more likely to vote for McCain if he came out in favor of offshore drilling.
In fact, the Zogby poll was conducted before McCain’s call for offshore drilling. The poll was conducted June 12-14; McCain made his pitch on the subject June 16.
The polls come as Republicans ramp up the pressure on the Democratic Congress to ease drilling restrictions. In his weekly radio address yesterday, President Bush took an unusually strong stance against Democratic policies on the issue, saying:
I know Democratic leaders have opposed some of these policies in the past. Now that their opposition has helped drive gas prices to record levels, I ask them to reconsider their positions. If congressional leaders leave for the Fourth of July recess without taking action, they will need to explain why $4-a-gallon gasoline is not enough incentive for them to act.
The Weekly Standard’s Fred Barnes opined yesterday that the Democrats are in a vulnerable position. He goes on to point out that the Democrats’ opposition goes beyond the oil issue, and is rooted in a broader issue: Fossil fuels in general, global warming, and the environmental lobby with which the party is so cozy. Obama’s platform on energy also reflects this.
It’s true that McCain has lobbied hard for the environmental vote at times, still opposes drilling in the ANWR and opposed off-shore drilling several years ago . . . And it becomes clearer with each of these polls that his “coming out” on the drilling issue was a wise decision for his campaign.
In the Zogby poll, just 5% said that they would be less likely to vote for McCain if he supported offshore drilling, compared to the 25% who said they’d be more likely to vote for him. Those are good odds by anyone’s standard. The ANWR issue, meanwhile, isn’t as clear-cut a winning issue for McCain — 23% said they would be more likely to vote for McCain if he supported exploring the ANWR while 21% said they would be less likely to vote for him, and only 57% overall support drilling in the ANWR — but it would behoove McCain to add ANWR exploration to his energy platform. Unfortunately, his firm stance on the issue to this late date nearly makes it impossible for him to reverse his position now.
Expect an increasingly consistent mantra from Republicans — from McCain to Congress to the White House — in the weeks ahead on this issue. McCain is aided by Obama’s almost arrogant dismissal of the notion of drilling off the coasts. Said Obama, “John McCain’s proposal, George Bush’s proposal, to drill offshore here in Florida and other places would not provide families any relief this year, next year, five years from now.” He added that America cannot drill its way out of its problem.
True enough, but neither can America tax its way out of the problem . . . which is the only short-term solution Obama has offered: A profits windfall tax for the oil industry. I would be curious to see which of Obama’s policies, presented by the candidate himself, could save us money on fuel next year or in five years.
Perhaps the best thing about the energy situation from the Republicans’ standpoint is that it gives them something to be on the offensive about. Any sitting presidential party is mostly on the defensive, especially two-term sitting presidential parties, and especially this election cycle. From the Iraq war to the economy, Republicans seem to be on the constant defensive. Gasoline in excess of $4 per gallon and a Democratic Congress that consistently rejects efforts to open coastal waters to oil exploration gives the Republicans a bone to gnaw on.